Climate Change and the Great Climate Migration
by Garatri Joshi
For thousands of years, people have migrated from their homelands to another in search of safety and security. Some were forcibly moved, many chose to relocate for religious, racial, political, or cultural reasons, while others left for environmental reasons. Today climate change and climate change-related disasters are expected to drive more than 216 million people to migrate from their homelands.
Climate change has caused droughts, heat waves, extreme storms, and floods around the world. In 2021 alone, there were more than a dozen unprecedented weather events; extreme heat caused by the heat dome in Canada and the Pacific Northwest, a blizzard in Spain and a deep freeze in Texas leading to hundreds of deaths. New York City and Zhengzhou experienced extreme rainfalls, the heaviest downpour ever recorded killed hundreds in floods and landslides. According to the World Meteorological Association, over the past 50 years, climate change-related disasters have increased fivefold, killing more than 2 million people and costing $3.64 trillion.
In the past 70 years, greenhouse gas emissions from humans have primarily contributed to the rapidly changing climate, rather than the many natural influences on the Earth’s heating and cooling, such as the sun’s energy and volcanic activity. From 1850-2021, the US, China, Russia, Brazil Indonesia, Germany, India, UK, Japan, and Canada emitted 2,500 billion tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2), mainly from fossil fuel use during industrialization and deforestation, bearing the historic share of emissions and responsibility for climate change. To stay below 1.5C of warming, less than 500GtCO2 remain in the carbon budget to share amongst nations globally. Given the modest steps of the recent COP26 conference (i.e., phase down of coal instead of phase out of coal), there is less confidence that nations will do so. In a review of world governments’ policies (versus pledges), the world is on track for 2.4C of warming. Climate change impacts will continue to disproportionately affect developing nations that only represent 10 percent of global emissions.
High-emitting developed nations have amassed great wealth and have better and ample resources to develop resiliency plans in response to climate change thereby enhancing stability. Whereas developing nations tend to be highly invested in agricultural production and have weaker infrastructure, and thus are incredibly vulnerable to the effects of droughts, fires, desertification, flooding, land loss, and air pollution. Coastal communities are also affected; ocean acidification impacts healthy fisheries and shellfish, and rising sea levels will continue to threaten their homes. This also puts these communities and nations at greater at risk for worsening water and food security, reduced access to natural resources, as well as civil unrest and political conflict.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reports since 2010, climate change and climate change-related disasters have already displaced an estimated 21.5 million. As climate-related disasters continue to worsen, many will be forced to make critical decisions of whether to leave their homeland. For most climate migrants, the decision to leave home is not an easy one, but lack of livelihood and inability to cope and adapt to the effects of climate change, will cause migrants to leave climate-vulnerable regions. Most will choose to live in nearby towns or within borders before risking journeys across borders.
The 2021 World Bank Groundswell report estimates that by 2050, without concrete action, more than 216 million people in six regions will migrate within their own countries. Sub-Saharan Africa with a fragile coastline, desertification and high agricultural dependence could see 86 million internal migrants move towards other coastlines and cities, while North Africa could see 19 million people moving due to water scarcity, deforestation, and rising sea levels. South Asia is expected to see 40 million migrants displaced from rising sea levels, water scarcity, heat waves, ecosystem loss, and drought. East Asia and the Pacific could see a similar scenario with 49 million displaced from rising sea levels, drought, temperature increases, and floods. Latin America is expected to see 17 million migrate from floods, hurricanes, intense storms, droughts, and rising see levels. Eastern Europe and Central Asia is also expected to be affected with 5.1 million migrating because of land degradation, desertification, and drought.
The United States will also face climate migration with growing intensity. Wildfires, rising temperatures, water scarcity, and drought on the West Coast and Pacific Southwest to tornadoes and extreme weather in the Midland to hurricanes, flooding and rising sea levels on East Coast, Gulf and Florida Panhandle will leave residents to consider whether to leave their homes for more stable regions.
As the number of climate migrants grow, governments will be forced to address and adapt to the crisis. Climate vulnerable regions will experience “out-migration” while more stable regions will experience “in-migration” stressing these hotspots. If countries commit to policy and action, with low-level emissions and inclusive, sustainable development, estimations of displaced people would lower by 80% to 44 million from worst case scenario of 216 million people. Few countries and migration hotspot cities have developed plans to address climate migration.
We can also do our part, every action no matter how big or small is important. If we all commit to reducing consumption and making sustainable, low or zero carbon purchases, we can make a collective impact in emission reduction. We also demonstrate to business the economic incentive for delivering sustainable goods and services to help reduce the impacts of climate change. Continue to use sustainable, reusable materials to reduce your consumption of resources and the demand for single-use items. This helps reduce emissions that adversely affect other parts of the world. Reduce your waste, by consuming less food and purchasing fewer unnecessary products. The less that goes in the landfill the less soil leaching and air pollution for communities nearby. Be diligent on saving energy so there is less demand on energy infrastructure that uses fossil fuels which in turn produces more emissions.
We can also do our part by observing the UN’s International Migrants Day on December 18th and bringing awareness of why migrants leave their homeland, the role migrants play and the contributions they make to our law firms and our community. Contribute to efforts that support climate migrants. Together, in solidarity, we can make an impact.